Estimating the impact of CCTV on crime using spatial causal inference

Citycentric conducted quantitative analyst as part of a PDG team on an evaluation of the effectiveness of safety and policing technology for the City of Cape Town. The core task was to produce a rigorous, evidence-based estimate of the impact of CCTV camera deployment on priority crime. The analysis applied a spatial staggered difference-in-differences design, estimated with two-way fixed effects, exploiting the phased rollout of cameras across locations over time to isolate their causal effect on murder rates. This approach represents a significant advance on conventional before-and-after comparisons and provides the City with defensible estimates suitable for informing investment decisions in safety and policing technology. Citycentric also delivered a reusable tool that drives the full analytical pipeline end-to-end, allowing the same methodology to be applied to any crime type on demand. The findings and the tool is informing ongoing decisions about the scale and placement of CCTV investment.