Apportioning population growth through constrained gravity modelling

Claus partnered with PwC in updating the City of Cape Town’s long-term population projections. Claus was tasked with developing a credible approach to allocate projected population growth across sub-metropolitan regions. To achieve this within project and data constraints, a gravity model was developed which accounted for local and city-level drivers governing the likely future location of households above and below the minimum threshold to access market housing, respectively.